Investors would track a host of macroeconomic data announcements scheduled this week, including inflation numbers, and also monitor global market trends, and trading activity of foreign institutional investors, analysts said. The ongoing quarterly earnings announcements and the rupee-dollar trend would also influence the markets.
The agency had in May projected an economic growth between 7.7 and 8 per cent for this fiscal and Monday's revision comes within a week of rival Fitch Ratings, and Citigroup revising the same to 7.5 per cent from 7.7.
Recent estimates show that foodgrain production in 2016-17 has touched a new record of 273.4 million tonnes or 8.7 per cent higher as compared to last year.
Confirming fears of a slowdown, India's economy grew by just 7.7 per cent in the first quarter of the 2011-12 financial year, compared to 8.8 per cent growth in the same three-month period last fiscal, which was mainly due to the poor performance of the manufacturing sector.
Stock markets are in for an event-heavy week ahead with a raft of Q1 earnings from blue-chips, the US Fed interest rate decision and foreign investors trading activity driving investors' sentiment, analysts said. Macroeconomic data announcements, monthly auto sales numbers and global market trends would also guide movement in the domestic equities, they said.
The ministries of Road Transport & Highways and Railways have exceeded the national average capital expenditure (capex) by spending 63 per cent and 57 per cent of Budget estimates (BE), respectively, in the first half of 2025-26 (FY26). The total capital expenditure for April-September of FY26 stood at 52 per cent of the BE, according to the latest data by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA).
Growth rate in per capita income is projected to fall to the lowest in 21 years this financial year - except for the financial years 2019-20 (FY20) and 2020-21 (FY21) - according to the first advance estimates. During the last 21 years, the two periods - FY20 and FY21 - saw growth rates in per capita income lower than 7.9 per cent, seen during FY24. This was despite the real gross domestic product (GDP) being projected to grow by 7.3 per cent in the current financial year by the first advance estimates.
Slackening industrial expansion is expected to pull down economic growth in the range of 8.1 to 8.5 per cent during July-September this fiscal from 8.8 per cent in the previous quarter, say experts.
Key Planning Commission official says push from small-scale industries will help reach the figure, but others disagree.
'How low GDP would have been, we don't know.' 'It raises serious questions because so many indicators are pointing to such a sharp decline and GDP estimates are still showing 4 per cent growth.'
While emerging economies present the best chances for economic growth, not all countries will prosper at the same rate.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday proposed a G20 initiative aimed at enhancing clean energy transitions by boosting recycling, easing supply chain pressures and advancing joint research on critical minerals, and suggested forging a partnership to make satellite data more accessible and interoperable.
After declining to a three-year low in FY24, the private sector investment is expected to fall further in the current financial year, India Ratings said in a research note.. The investments in the private sector are likely to plummet to below 11 per cent of the GDP in FY25, based on the trends from the latest national accounts data and company fillings, it noted.
The power supply situation in the country has gone from bad to worse, and could prove to be a dampener to economic growth.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday slashed the growth projection to 7 per cent for the current fiscal from the earlier forecast of 7.2 per cent, citing aggressive tightening of monetary policies globally and moderation in demand. Unveiling the fifth monetary policy for this fiscal, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the central bank remains committed to price stability to put the country on the sustained path of growth.
Credit quality of Indian corporate is expected to be stable in the second half of the current financial year (H2FY26), supported by easing monetary cycle, and declining inflation, coupled with income-tax relief and rationalisation of the goods and service tax (GST) rates, among others.
Historically, overall credit has grown at 1.6 times GDP growth
On the eve of busy season Credit Policy, Finance Minister P Chidambaram on Monday said the government and the Reserve Bank will take necessary steps to keep inflation moderate and foster growth in the economy.
The country's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow at around 18.5 per cent with an upward bias in the first quarter of the current financial year, according to SBI research report Ecowrap. This estimate is lower than the Reserve Bank of India's GDP growth projection of 21.4 per cent for the April-June quarter. "Based on our 'Nowcasting' model, the forecasted GDP growth for Q1 FY22 would be around 18.5 per cent (with upward bias)," the report said. Higher growth in Q1 FY22 is mainly on account of a low base.
The ratio of market capitalisation to gross domestic product (GDP) in India remains elevated despite the recent correction in the equities markets. It was 147.5 per cent on December 3, 56 per cent higher than the 10-year average of 94 per cent. The current ratio is slightly lower than the all-time high ratio of 154 per cent at the end of September this year.
The highlights of RBI's bi-monthly monetary policy announced by Governor Shaktikanta Das:
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Monday said India aims for a sustained 9-10 per cent economic growth over the next three decades and sought US investments in technology and infrastructure, where a staggering $1trillion funding was required by 2015.
India's economic growth has declined to 5.3 per cent in July-September this fiscal, from 6.7 per cent in the same period a year ago
Backed by investment activity and healthy performance of the services sector, the economy is expected to grow at 6.2 per cent in 2004-05, according to Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy.
The time is ideal for a 'Dream Budget' akin to the 1991 reforms that sparked high growth and unlocked significant gains in productivity, points out Rajeswari Sengupta.
'I believe that the overall demand for commercial vehicles will improve, even though there is a slowdown in the GDP.'
With rising credit demand, cleaner balance sheets, and renewed investor confidence, banks are positioned at the forefront of the market rally. From major players like ICICI and HDFC to broader policy shifts, there's much driving this momentum.
With rising credit demand, cleaner balance sheets, and renewed investor confidence, banks are positioned at the forefront of the market rally. From major players like ICICI and HDFC to broader policy shifts, there's much driving this momentum.
With rising credit demand, cleaner balance sheets, and renewed investor confidence, banks are positioned at the forefront of the market rally. From major players like ICICI and HDFC to broader policy shifts, there's much driving this momentum.
Wholesale price inflation (WPI) softened to 0.13 per cent in September on easing in prices of food articles and manufactured items, government data showed on Tuesday. WPI-based inflation was 0.52 per cent in August and 1.91 per cent in September last year.
Continuing on the fiscally prudent path, the Modi government in the interim Budget refrained from announcing populist measures, which will help it trim the fiscal deficit to 5.1 per cent of the GDP next fiscal and 4.5 per cent in FY26.
The survey predicts that agricultural growth would contract by 1 per cent this fiscal, but the industry would grow by 8.5 per cent, and services by a smart 9 per cent.
India's new climate pledge to the UN could be weakened by its growing use of coal, even as the country plans a 2035 roadmap to cut emissions and boost clean energy.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Friday said the world is facing "profound imbalances" in trade and energy security, and is undergoing a structural transformation, with India standing out as a 'stabilising force' that can withstand external shocks.
Facing criticism from the government over the central bank prioritising inflation over growth, the new RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Monday said that prospects of the Indian economy are expected to improve on the back of high consumer and business confidence in 2025. "As we strive to preserve financial stability to support a higher growth path for the Indian economy, our focus remains steadfast on maintaining stability of financial institutions and, more broadly, systemic stability," Malhotra said in foreword to the Financial Stability Report.
Google plans to invest $15 billion over the next five years in setting an artificial intelligence hub in Visakhapatnam, a senior official of the company said on Tuesday.
Foreign brokerages remain cautious on the road ahead for the Indian equity markets. Though analysts at Nomura have revised their March 2026 Nifty target to 26,140 levels from the earlier 24,970, but the upside from the current levels is a modest 6 per cent. BofA Securities, on the other hand, has not made any change to its year-end Nifty target.
The Indian economy is expected to be adversely affected by a surge in inflation fuelled by energy and commodity prices. Despite signs of growth slowing down from the last year, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has already hiked interest rates twice in June to deal with inflationary pressures and may well do so again, S&P said in a statement.
